On Sunday, November 22, the kids and I went to the Corning Museum of Glass.  Turned out to be a wonderful day for it too.  We took the rural route there and it was a very nice drive.  I haven’t been to the museum in many many years so I was really looking forward to going again.  Lots of interesting things to see and do there.  When they say to allow for three to five hours, they weren’t kidding!  Here is a nice photo slide show I put together of our day.

The kids really enjoyed the part where they made their own holiday glass ornaments.  UPS was kind enough to drop them off this morning and they are fantastic.  I’m almost afraid to put them on my tree.  These things are heavy to boot.  These feel more like heavy paperweights than Christmas ornaments.  The whole experience was well worth the money.  When the kids are a little older, they can do more advanced stuff as they break up the activities based on age level.  I was also fortunate enough to get some Christmas shopping done while I was there.  I look forward to another visit in the future.

There is great potential in this for people to game the system. As soon as the government starts saying it will pay the bills on anything, all of a sudden costs become an infinitely increasing factor. We know full well that spending more doesn’t always get you more, but when it comes to government programs that maxim never seems to hold water. All it would do is encourage people to seek out more care that they may not actually need. Since the government will pay the bills to doctors and hospitals, what incentive is there not to encourage more care? As it is, there is always some debate or other because an insurance company refuses to pay for what it deems to be unnecessary care. If the government assumed all those responsibilities, all it would take is for one person to cry foul and it would all come apart. Someone would claim denial of care based on sex or race, a lawsuit would start, and next thing you know the big news item will be how the U.S. Supreme Court would have to hear the case.

I think the public at large is pretty confused right now. If you have watched any video of some of the town hall style meetings the you know what I mean. The majority of the fears and concerns people have are grounded in falsehoods. If you claim that there is a provision in a proposed bill that either doesn’t exist or that says something that isn’t true, then the basis for your arguments are null and void. It doesn’t help that the proposed legislation is over a thousand pages long. Even some of the House and Senate members admit that reading it would be a daunting task.

One good thing that has come out of this mess is that some of those untouched topics of health care are starting to gain some traction. Tort reform would be a good example. Medical malpractice is very costly and damaging to the system. Rationing of care would be another. If it takes delaying some reforms to make all medical care better for the future, I think that would be worthwhile. In the mean time, we still have people without it and it’s getting more expensive by the day. Might be worth considering tackling one problem at time. I could read 200 pages just fine, but 2000 pages is another story.

I don’t think it’s any secret that many state governments around this country are in trouble. They have spent many decades on spending more than they should and now a true test has come forth. Since a state relies on income from sales and property taxes, the means by which a budget is created often rests on projections about these sources of income. A foreclosed home isn’t going to produce much for property tax income. So many people don’t have jobs they won’t be spending as much so there goes the projections for sales tax revenue. Add to that gridlocked legislatures and fiscal commitments that were shepherded through during the good times then it’s not hard to see why there is so much trouble now.

Times are not good anymore. Many states had a yearly budget fight even when times were good. Everyone thinks their program should become some kind of indestructible monolith that no one can touch from now till the end of time. We have all these financial commitments that were put in place well before this economic downturn happened. Look at things like pensions and medical coverage for those who once worked for the state. Very generous pensions and full medical coverage. All of that costs money and lots of it. Multiply those costs by the number of people who get it now or will get it and we get some huge numbers.

If anyone was offered a good pension and free medical for their retirement, who would turn that down? Not me, that’s for sure. If you already have it, then you won’t be too thrilled if it’s changed to require you to pay into it. I certainly wouldn’t be. I really wonder what people were thinking when they designed these things for state workers. One defense could be that this was the best way to ensure that the state could hire and retain the very best. If you could compare the quality of employees employed by the state versus the private sector, it would be very interesting to see what the difference would be. There are plenty of quality employees in the private sector too and they certainly don’t get the same free ride for their retirement. For some reason, public employment is treated as a public service instead of the employment that it is.

So now there is all this talk about having constitutional conventions. Indeed, many state constitutions do need to be updated or completely redone. The recent legislative crisis in New York State is a great example. California is another state that badly needs to have their state constitution redone. If states like New York and California can’t get their state budgets in order, how are they going to get the state constitution right? The process for getting it done would need to be as depoliticized as possible. That will be a very tough task since so much is at stake.

Some good reading on these topics:

Economist.com – California: The Ungovernable State

Economist.com – Public Sector Pensions: Unsatisfactory State

]]> http://acaproductions.com/myblog/2009/07/20/the-state-of-spending/feed/ 0 http://acaproductions.com/myblog/2009/07/15/pay-it-forward/ http://acaproductions.com/myblog/2009/07/15/pay-it-forward/#comments Wed, 15 Jul 2009 20:58:07 +0000 DoubleA http://acaproductions.com/myblog/2009/07/15/pay-it-forward/ Short of living in a vacuum, it would be hard not to notice that the supposed health care reform is making the rounds on Capitol Hill. President Obama did pledge reform for health care and the debate is well under way. There are already bills being presented and debated on in the House so it’s safe to say that it’s coming sooner rather than later. Never has an issue caused such intense debate in this country.
Everyone in this country has a stake in this. For the average citizen like myself, it’s a chance to have health coverage regardless of circumstances as I have been without health insurance before. For health insurance companies, it could mean the end of their business as we know it. If not the end, then a greatly reduced bottom line as they get mandated to do things they might not do otherwise such as denying coverage for someone who costs too much. For health care providers, it could mean that all these people who file into emergency rooms and clinics will have at least some form of basic coverage. That translates into more money for providers as there is a lot of care provided for free or at least on the public dime since there are so many without any kind of coverage at all.

One part of the discussion that seems rather muted in my opinion is what this universal coverage is going to cost. If you look at other countries with universal coverage like Canada or the UK, they have higher taxes to cover those costs. Everyone in the U.S. wants this coverage but no one wants to talk about raising our taxes to have it. Estimates being thrown around now estimate costs not in millions or billions of dollars, but many trillions. Even for this country, that’s no small amount of change we are dealing with. On top of that, we have all these other programs the current administration wants to pour billions of dollars into on top of what it would cost for universal health care. Every dollar adds up and it leaves the public at large with the impression that our money supply is endless. The concept of scarcity applies even to the Treasury of the U.S.

There are some basic assumptions you have to accept before getting your head completely around the idea of universal care. First is that since we will all have to pay for it in some way (with the rich paying more which is what the Democrats want), we would need to accept that getting more than we have now would require us to pay more to get it. The second is that we would be expecting top notch care for our money. It’s already becoming apparent that we will all not be paying the same amount for health care. Those who have more will pay more, those who have less will pay less. As for quality of care, no one is sure how a universal system will affect care in the future. Some would claim that the care provided would be diluted with longer waits for specialists, etc. Time will certainly tell.

As an average citizen, all I ask in this is that we put something reasonable together. I have very good health care coverage under my current employer but I wonder how long that will last. If I have another option available, it should be reasonably priced with at least some basic care. That I feel could be a reasonable investment in the health and well being of our nation’s citizens.

Many companies in their current form will die, either close shop completely or go bankrupt. Any companies that survive will need to radically reformulate their business model to survive (the big three automakers as a great example). Payroll is the single biggest expense that any business has. It costs major money to pay people to run your business. Salary/wages as well as extras like health insurance, pensions and 401k’s, all of that stuff factors into costs. If a business isn’t making enough profit to support their payroll, then you either have to make more money or find a way to cut payroll. If the economy is such that making more money would be difficult, then you will see layoffs, wage cuts, cuts in benefits, etc.

Demand for goods and services will eventually return. It may take many years for that to happen, but when it does companies will start hiring again to meet the demand. Companies will need workers with better skills and different ones at that. It all comes down what skills you can offer your employer. The skills that used to be in demand may not be the same ones in demand in the future. If you are in the category where you have minimal skills to offer an employer, it’s going to become increasingly difficult to get meaningful employment in the new economy of the future.

We have lots of people in this country who fall in the minimal skills category. Many people will be reluctant to do any skills upgrading due to age, lack of funds, etc. People working, earning an income and spending what they earn, is what drives our economy. It’s going to be hard to drive the new economy without enough people working. The government can only continue to hand out help for so long and to so many people.

The employment mix that we have in this country needs to be a healthy mix of skilled and unskilled opportunities. I see that balance being badly upset and its going to make it difficult to get everyone back to work.

I almost got the feeling that the majority of crowd in attendance was expecting a somewhat less electric presence from Todd. Most were older than I was and the idea of taking a the full force of well distorted guitars for too long seemed to be too much for some. Many people cut out before the end of the show. The venue itself leaves a lot to be desired in my mind. I’ve seen more shows than I can count at The Tralf and it seems like the place has taken steps backwards as time as gone on. Some of the past owners didn’t help their cause so if anything we should be thankful it’s still around.

In any event, I look forward to what Todd has to offer in the future. For all he has done so far (and it’s a lot), he is too restless and creative to pack it in now. Rock on, Todd!

Personally, the work he did with Quincy Jones at the helm was the most amazing. Q is genius enough in his own right, but combined with Michael’s raw talent it was so potent. The collaboration between Michael and Q to me was a match made heaven on earth. I like the music from that time and I can’t help but be in awe – amazing songs, performed with so much energy and emotion, all topped off with stellar production. Since Michael will no longer be around and Q is pretty much retired, the banner must be passed to another dynamic duo to capture people’s imagination with that same potent magic. Problem is that the music industry has changed so much, I wonder if it could ever scale those heights again.

There is a ton of talent out there to be sure. Even on TV shows that scour for talent it becomes apparent there are lots of hidden gems to be had. I really wonder if anyone would ever be willing to cultivate talent like they used to. Not to wax nostalgic, but a great example would be a group like Fleetwood Mac. It took them many albums, plenty of personnel changes, and a lot of faith on the part of their record company before they really came into their own. Even Lindsey Buckingham, their lead guitarist, singer, and producer, admitted as such in a video I saw on his web site (or linked from at least) where he was responding to a fan’s question about the topic (the video had to be removed thanks to objections from his own record company). I don’t remember the exact quote, but it was something along the lines that most record companies today would never have the patience or wherewithal to cultivate talent over many albums. Most groups might get one or two chances at best before being dropped.

In honor of Michael Jackson, I only hope that trend changes. We could use another King of Pop before my lifetime is over.

The way I understand it is that two people from the Democratic party decided to defect to the Republican party so as to make them the new majority. After that, all hell broke loose when one of the people who defected decided to go back to being a Democrat. Both parties have so much acrimony that they now hold seperate sessions in the Senate chamber, sometimes within minutes of each other. The governor is trying to force them to work by calling special sessions every day of the week until they do. There is a lot of yelling, name calling, underhanded tricks, and who knows what else going on. There is so much animosity in Albany right now I can feel it all the way over on the other side of the state. Since the governor that we used to have had to resign due to his expensive indiscretions, the lieutenant governor had to step into the number one spot. Since there is no lieutenant governor right now, that means that the State Senate is now at a 31-31 tie with nobody who can be a tie breaker. So here it stands with our State Senate split right down the middle right along party lines. The founding fathers of this country must be laughing like mad – they warned about these things.

All kinds of issues have been raised now that never have been before. Should the Senators get paid if they don’t actually pass any bills? If they do pass any bills, is it legal for them to do so? Should the judicial branch settle this dispute or stay out of it? Can someone mount a credible legal challenge to any of the bills passed by the Senate?

The former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani, recently chimed in about the crisis in an Op Ed piece in the New York Times and I think he may have hit upon something that needs to be addressed. He is proposing that we have a new constitutional convention in the State to resolve this (the last one was in 1967). After all, if there were some provision for a tie breaker then this wouldn’t have happened. Mr. Giuliani has proposed a number of sensible changes that could make a big difference in how things work in this state. To allow a stalemate in legislative affairs at any level is just asking for trouble. I’m sure when the state constitution was being put together, no had ever thought something like this would ever happen. Well it has and now something must be done. Maybe we should consider the governor to be the tiebreaker vote in the absence of a lieutenant governor. The idea of a special election for a replacement lieutenant governor sounds nice on the surface but it would involve a cost and logistics issues that would be difficult to sell to the public. Mr. Giuliani idea of addressing the succession issue with the Lieutenant Governor’s position is right on track.

So every morning I come home from work, I read my paper while eating breakfast. Lately it seems like a daily soap opera and it only gets more dramatic by the minute. If the governor can’t break the logjam, and the judicial branch wants nothing to do with it, then who needs to step in and how? I can tell you this much – the voters of this state can’t do much about it, at least not now. Election time they can do something but we are pretty much paralyzed for the time being. Even if the citizens of this state mounted a class action suite against the Senate, what judge in their right mind would even touch it?

It is possible that all parties could forge a coalition government and create a power sharing agreement. Don’t you remember as a child when a parent or guardian would lecture you about sharing your toys? Well the business of this state is no toy and as far as I know, we the people elected adults to serve those offices. As such, they should sit down and do as adults should do – learn how to share what they have for everyone’s benefit.

If you need a new soap series to follow, here are some articles about it:

The Buffalo News – 6/9/09 – Renegades help GOP retake State Senate

The Buffalo News – 6/18/09 – As the Senate reels, Espada says he gets 2 votes

If you go to the web site of just about any news source in the state, just search for “state senate” and you will have plenty to read for hours of fun.